Dear Baseball Insighters,
Fresh off the presses, we present the 2009 BBI N.L. Rookie
Rankings with some differences you might not see in your Roto magazine of
choice. Much like 2008, we’ve included the
picks in a matrix that you can customize to your liking (more on this in a
moment). Second, although our rankings focus
on whether players will have an impact in 2009, we also attempt to balance
short-term value with longer term potential.
Angel Villalona is a great case in point in that although he has tremendous
upside in 2011-12, which is a long-term buy even in most keeper leagues, he
simply shouldn’t be much of a factor until 2010, with significant growth in
2011 and ’12. Third, we’re sharing our
high-level logic as to how we rank the rooks which is based on four key factors
(all on a 1-10 scale, 10 being the best), all of which are weight adjusted as
follows:
1) Opportunity (weighted
30%) – represents a player’s chance of “getting the call” to The Show.
2) Contribution (weighted 35%) – represents
the impact a player will have (once called up) in any of the 10 statistical
categories generally used in 5x5 leagues.
Let’s face it, some prospects really won’t add measurable value in any
one statistical category…. ever!
3) Playing Time (weighted 20%) – once the player
is called up, how often will they play?
Will Colby Rasmus sit vs. LHPs once he’s called up? Will James McDonald start or will he be
pushed to the bullpen, reducing his opportunity to rack up K’s and Wins?
4) Ceiling (weighted 15%) – very subjective
measure of the player’s long-term potential (think 3-5 years out). Although the focus of the BBI rankings are on
impact for 2008, we still want to include a balancing factor for player
potential.
The results are a bit different than what we’ve seen elsewhere
– Chris Perez is well positioned toward the top of our list, not because we
think he’s the 2009 version of Jair Jurrjens, but because he has a great
combination of opportunity, ability and can generate “Roto friendly”
statistical contributions (Ks, SVs) that can make a difference.
We listened to your feedback and have expanded our coverage
to 79 N.L. players to provide deeper coverage of high potential prospects who
are still honing their skills in the low minors.
Feel free to alter the weightings for you own purposes,
based on different league formats and dynamics.
We’ve had “Insighters” in deep keeper leagues tweak the “Ceiling”
weighting to focus more on long-term prospects that are still available in
upcoming drafts.
As with last year, you won’t see any experienced Japanese
players on this list as we don’t believe these are rookies in the traditional
sense (check out their player profiles for predicted performances/values). There may also be a player or two that
violates MLB’s definition of rookie eligibility and we understand that we have
bent and/or broken some of the rules because we can…;)
Enjoy and by all means let us know what you think at GM@baseballinsights.com and please
feel free to share with your roto family.
We should be able to post the A.L. Rankings at some point
next week.
Good Health, Wealth and Pitching,
Dave Wysocky
GM BaseballInsights
gm@baseballinsights.com
|
2009
BBI N.L. Rookie Rankings
|
Weightings
|
0.3
|
0.35
|
0.2
|
0.15
|
|
Ranking
|
Player
|
Age
|
Position
|
Team
|
Score
|
Opportunity
|
Contribution
|
Playing Time
|
Ceiling
|
|
1
|
Cameron Maybin
|
22
|
OF
|
FLA
|
8.45
|
9
|
7
|
9
|
10
|
|
2
|
Chris Perez
|
24
|
P
|
STL
|
8.00
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
6
|
|
3
|
Seth Smith
|
26
|
OF
|
COL
|
7.90
|
10
|
8
|
6
|
6
|
|
4
|
Jordan Schafer
|
22
|
OF
|
ATL
|
7.35
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
|
5
|
Sergio Romo
|
26
|
P
|
SF
|
7.35
|
9
|
6
|
9
|
5
|
|
6
|
Jose Ceda
|
22
|
P
|
FLA
|
7.05
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
|
7
|
James McDonald
|
24
|
P
|
LAD
|
7.00
|
8
|
6
|
8
|
6
|
|
8
|
Gaby Sanchez
|
25
|
1B
|
FLA
|
6.95
|
9
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
|
9
|
Yonder Alonso
|
22
|
1B
|
CIN
|
6.85
|
3
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
|
10
|
Ryan Tucker
|
22
|
P
|
FLA
|
6.80
|
8
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
|
11
|
Pedro Alvarez
|
22
|
3B
|
PIT
|
6.80
|
4
|
7
|
9
|
9
|
|
12
|
Tommy Hanson
|
22
|
P
|
ATL
|
6.70
|
5
|
6
|
8
|
10
|
|
13
|
Kris Medlen
|
23
|
P
|
ATL
|
6.35
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
5
|
|
14
|
Andrew McCutchen
|
22
|
OF
|
PIT
|
6.30
|
7
|
5
|
7
|
7
|
|
15
|
Colby Rasmus
|
22
|
OF
|
STL
|
6.30
|
4
|
6
|
9
|
8
|
|
16
|
Scott Elbert
|
23
|
P
|
LAD
|
6.30
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
17
|
Sean West
|
23
|
P
|
FLA
|
6.25
|
4
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
|
18
|
J. A. Happ
|
26
|
P
|
PHI
|
6.25
|
6
|
6
|
8
|
5
|
|
19
|
Dexter Fowler
|
23
|
OF
|
COL
|
6.25
|
5
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
20
|
Jarrod Parker
|
20
|
P
|
ARI
|
6.15
|
3
|
6
|
9
|
9
|
|
21
|
Carlos Carrasco
|
22
|
P
|
PHI
|
6.10
|
5
|
5
|
9
|
7
|
|
22
|
Bret Wallace
|
22
|
3B
|
STL
|
6.05
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
|
23
|
Chris Dickerson
|
27
|
OF
|
CIN
|
6.00
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
|
24
|
Jeff Samardzija
|
24
|
P
|
CHN
|
5.90
|
6
|
5
|
8
|
5
|
|
25
|
Brad Holt
|
22
|
P
|
NYM
|
5.85
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
|
26
|
Jonathon Niese
|
22
|
P
|
NYM
|
5.80
|
7
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
|
27
|
Nick Evans
|
23
|
OF
|
NYM
|
5.80
|
7
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
|
28
|
Todd Frazier
|
23
|
SS
|
CIN
|
5.75
|
4
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
|
29
|
Jason Motte
|
27
|
P
|
STL
|
5.75
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
|
30
|
Will Venable
|
26
|
OF
|
SD
|
5.75
|
8
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
|
31
|
Logan Morrison
|
21
|
1B
|
FLA
|
5.65
|
3
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
32
|
Fernando Martinez
|
20
|
OF
|
NYM
|
5.65
|
3
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
33
|
Jeff Sues
|
26
|
P
|
PIT
|
5.65
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
|
34
|
Kyle Banks
|
22
|
1B
|
SD
|
5.65
|
3
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
35
|
Jason Heyward
|
19
|
OF
|
ATL
|
5.50
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
|
36
|
Angel Salome
|
23
|
C
|
MIL
|
5.50
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
|
37
|
Matt Antonelli
|
24
|
2B
|
SD
|
5.50
|
6
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
|
38
|
Jordan Zimmerman
|
23
|
P
|
WAS
|
5.45
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
|
39
|
Mat Gamel
|
23
|
3B
|
MIL
|
5.35
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
|
40
|
Daniel Schlereth
|
23
|
P
|
ARI
|
5.35
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
|
41
|
Ivan DeJesus Jr.
|
22
|
SS
|
LAD
|
5.30
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
|
42
|
Chris Coghlan
|
24
|
2B
|
FLA
|
5.30
|
3
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
|
43
|
Lou Marson
|
23
|
C
|
PHI
|
5.20
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
44
|
Jess Todd
|
23
|
P
|
STL
|
5.20
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
|
45
|
Drew Stubbs
|
24
|
OF
|
CIN
|
5.15
|
6
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
|
46
|
Ross Detwiler
|
23
|
P
|
WAS
|
5.10
|
3
|
4
|
8
|
8
|
|
47
|
Kevin Hart
|
26
|
P
|
CHN
|
5.05
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
3
|
|
48
|
Brian Bogusevic
|
25
|
OF
|
HOU
|
5.00
|
5
|
4
|
6
|
6
|
|
49
|
Drew Suton
|
26
|
2B
|
HOU
|
4.95
|
4
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
|
50
|
Alcides Escobar
|
22
|
SS
|
MIL
|
4.95
|
3
|
4
|
8
|
7
|
|
51
|
Chris Valaika
|
23
|
SS
|
CIN
|
4.90
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
|
52
|
Jhoulys Chacin
|
21
|
P
|
COL
|
4.90
|
3
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
53
|
Josh Lindblom
|
22
|
P
|
LAD
|
4.90
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
|
54
|
Josh Vitters
|
19
|
3B
|
CHN
|
4.80
|
1
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
|
55
|
David Freese
|
26
|
P
|
STL
|
4.75
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
|
56
|
Brad Lincoln
|
24
|
P
|
PIT
|
4.70
|
5
|
3
|
7
|
5
|
|
57
|
Bobby Parnell
|
24
|
P
|
NYM
|
4.65
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
|
58
|
Shelby Ford
|
24
|
2B
|
PIT
|
4.65
|
3
|
4
|
8
|
5
|
|
59
|
Andrew Lambo
|
20
|
OF
|
LAD
|
4.65
|
1
|
5
|
7
|
8
|
|
60
|
Cedric Hunter
|
21
|
OF
|
SD
|
4.65
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
|
61
|
Tim Alderson
|
20
|
P
|
SF
|
4.55
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
8
|
|
62
|
Neil Walker
|
23
|
3B
|
PIT
|
4.55
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
|
63
|
Matt Dominguez
|
19
|
3B
|
FLA
|
4.50
|
1
|
4
|
8
|
8
|
|
64
|
Bud Norris
|
24
|
P
|
HOU
|
4.50
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
|
65
|
Juan Francisco
|
22
|
3B
|
HOU
|
4.45
|
2
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
|
66
|
Madison Bumgarner
|
19
|
P
|
SF
|
4.45
|
1
|
3
|
8
|
10
|
|
67
|
Angel Villalona
|
18
|
1B
|
SF
|
4.45
|
1
|
4
|
7
|
9
|
|
68
|
Chris Johnson
|
24
|
3B
|
HOU
|
4.40
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
5
|
|
69
|
Daniel McCutchen
|
26
|
P
|
PIT
|
4.20
|
5
|
3
|
6
|
3
|
|
70
|
Jeremy Jeffress
|
21
|
P
|
MIL
|
4.20
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
|
71
|
Mat Latos
|
21
|
P
|
SD
|
4.10
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
|
72
|
Felipe Paulino
|
25
|
P
|
HOU
|
4.10
|
6
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
|
73
|
Chris Marrero
|
21
|
1B
|
WAS
|
4.00
|
1
|
3
|
8
|
7
|
|
74
|
Bryan Anderson
|
22
|
C
|
STL
|
3.95
|
2
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
|
75
|
Eddie Kunz
|
23
|
P
|
NYM
|
3.90
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
|
76
|
Jose Tabata
|
20
|
OF
|
PIT
|
3.90
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
5
|
|
77
|
Esmil Rogers
|
23
|
P
|
COL
|
3.85
|
1
|
4
|
7
|
5
|
|
78
|
Conor Gillaspie
|
22
|
3B
|
SF
|
3.80
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
7
|
|
79
|
Dominic Brown
|
21
|
OF
|
PHI
|
3.75
|
1
|
3
|
6
|
8
|
